AGP Executive Report

Erbil Security: Drones struck a refugee camp and targeted Khabat district, with no casualties reported. IS Detainees: Iraq rejected Syria’s request to repatriate about 4,000 suspected Islamic State prisoners, saying those accused of crimes in Iraq will face Iraqi law. Currency Pressure: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi defended the new official rate of 1,500 dinars per dollar, citing oil-export disruption, debt and the need to keep salaries paid; the Coordination Framework proposed price protections and fee cuts to cushion households. Oil Routes: Baghdad is seeking a Syrian route to move crude around Strait of Hormuz risks as it explores ways to sustain exports. Connectivity: Iraqi Airways has resumed direct flights to Iran after a US sanctions waiver, while Iraq plans to block Waze, citing its Israeli origins.

Currency Pressure: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is expected to face lawmakers over the dinar’s devaluation from 1,320 to 1,520 per dollar, a move that has drawn public anger amid rising prices and salary concerns. Flights Resume: Iraqi Airways has restarted direct flights to Iran after a US sanctions waiver, restoring travel links suspended in March. Oil Routes: Baghdad is pursuing alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz, with Syria saying an overland route to the Mediterranean could begin soon; Iraq is also looking to boost exports through Turkey. Security: An Islamic State attack near Kirkuk that killed a police officer has sharpened concerns about the group’s threat as Iraq takes on more counter-ISIS duties after the coalition’s withdrawal.

Air Links: Iraqi Airways has resumed daily direct flights from Najaf to Tehran, Mashhad and Isfahan after a seven-month suspension, restoring routes used for religious, medical and educational travel. Security: Attacks near Hawija, north of Baghdad, killed a Federal Police officer and wounded four others; authorities imposed a nighttime curfew as officials warned of a possible ISIS resurgence. Customs: Iraq says digital ASYCUDA processing has helped lift customs revenues to about $2 billion so far this year, with the system set to expand to Kurdistan Region crossings. Currency and Oil: The dinar’s official rate was cut to around 1,500–1,520 per dollar as war-related shipping disruption squeezes oil exports, while the parallel-market rate climbed above 1,700. Baghdad is also seeking a Syria route to move crude toward the Mediterranean and bypass Hormuz.

Dinar Shock: Iraq has reset the official exchange rate to 1,500–1,520 dinars per dollar as war-related oil shipping disruptions squeeze state revenues. The parallel rate briefly topped 1,700, while markets and shops closed in protest. Lawmakers are demanding an emergency session and a reversal, warning that imports and household costs will rise. Analysts say reserves could fall sharply, with an IMF program a possible last resort if oil income keeps sliding. ISIS Threat: ISIS attacked a Hashd al-Shaabi base near Hawija, with no casualties reported. The assault came a day after an attack killed two federal police officers and wounded others, underscoring the security challenge following the coalition’s withdrawal from Iraq. Regional Tensions: Muqtada al-Sadr urged Washington to take a “moderate” stance and said Iraq must not become an arena for outside conflicts.

Currency & Cost of Living: Iraq’s cabinet approved a major dinar devaluation, setting the official rate at 1,520 IQD per US dollar (with a 1,500 purchase rate and 1,510 bank/sales rate), a move linked to disruptions to oil exports amid the Iran-U.S. conflict—officially narrowing the gap with the parallel market but raising import costs. Anti-Corruption: Iraq’s Integrity Commission says it uncovered a 2.19 billion IQD embezzlement scheme in Salah Al-Din’s traffic directorate, involving forged traffic citation receipts and the detention of senior officers. Oil & Trade: Chinese independent refiners reportedly increased purchases of Iraqi crude for October-November delivery, using Basra grades as supplies from Iran dwindle, while OPEC+ kept November output targets steady despite ongoing Gulf disruptions. Security & ISIS: Syrian forces arrested a suspected ISIS commander tied to a deadly mosque bombing in Homs, underscoring continued cross-border counterterror efforts. Governance: Iraqi Prime Minister al-Zaidi met tribal leaders, saying recovered corruption funds will go to a Development Fund and that talks with Turkey produced an agreement on withdrawing Turkish forces.

US Withdrawal Fallout: The U.S. says its final troops left Iraq on Sept. 30, formally ending Operation Inherent Resolve, but Iraqi officials now worry about ISIS pockets and the growing clout of Iran-backed militias. Sovereignty Flashpoint: Days after the pullout, PMF members were photographed trampling a U.S. flag in Baghdad; Iraq’s PMO says arrests were made and a probe is underway, as Washington and Iraqi lawmakers demand accountability. Militia Disarmament Push: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi says three armed groups agreed to disarm, while negotiations continue and the government targets a June 2027 deadline for weapons outside state control. Security Update: Iraqi forces in Kirkuk arrested a suspected ISIS leader after an attack killed a police officer, with Hawija described as stable. Economy & Energy: Iraq’s oil exports keep moving—seaborne exports hit 2.57m bpd in September—and Iraq is preparing a new Iraq-Syria oil pipeline that could start work in Q1 2027. Tech & Daily Life: Iraq plans to ban the Israeli-developed Waze app by end-December, and Baghdad markets saw gold prices fall while the U.S. dollar rate stays volatile.

Iraq’s Maritime Revival: Iraq’s state-owned Iraqi Line will restart regular Gulf shipping on Oct. 15 after a 50-year gap, with the first trip from Jebel Ali to Umm Qasr, aiming to boost trade and give merchants a state-backed route as Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue. Oil & Shipping Pressure: Gulf oil exports (excluding Iran) rebounded to over 81% of pre-war levels in September, while Iran’s exports fell to near zero; refined fuel recovery lagged, keeping diesel and jet fuel tight. Security & ISIS Crackdowns: Kurdistan Asayish arrested 22 suspects in ISIS-linked cells across several areas, while ISIS attacked Iraqi Federal Police in Hawija, killing two officers. State-Building & Politics: Parliament is set to vote Oct. 8 on completing Iraq’s cabinet; meanwhile, PM Al-Zaidi says three armed factions handed over weapons and others agreed to surrender, with a June 30, 2027 deadline to bring arms under state control. Anti-Corruption: Iraq’s Integrity Commission arrested the head of the Saladin Investment Commission over alleged corruption. Kurdistan-Baghdad Ties: KRG PM Masrour Barzani said relations with Baghdad are moving toward resolving outstanding issues, stressing constitutional rights for Kurds.

Security Update: Islamic State militants attacked a federal police site near Hawija, about 70 km southwest of Kirkuk, killing at least one officer and injuring four, in the first reported IS assault on Iraqi forces since the US withdrawal on Sept. 30. Sovereignty & Diplomacy: Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi ordered arrests and an investigation after pro-Iranian elements drove over US flags during Baghdad’s Sovereignty Day parades, aiming to prevent a wider crisis with Washington. Iran Flights Resume: After a US sanctions exemption, Iranian airlines restarted flights to Najaf, with Iraq also announcing direct Iraqi Airways routes to Tehran, Mashhad and Isfahan from Oct. 8. Armed Groups Disarmament: Zaidi said five non-state factions agreed to surrender weapons, with three already handing them over, as the government’s phased disarmament push continues into 2027. Oil Logistics: Iraq’s state tanker firm moved 2 million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz on a VLCC, and Baghdad is now seeking more tankers to regain control amid shipping risks. Sports: India’s U17 women opened AFC qualifiers by crushing Iraq 14-0 in Malaysia.

Najaf–Tehran Air Link Restarts: Iraq’s Najaf International Airport received its first direct flight from Tehran after a US waiver, with Caspian Airlines landing and the aircraft greeted by a water-cannon salute. Iraq says Iranian carriers (except Mahan Air) can run up to 40 flights daily to Najaf, easing travel for pilgrims, patients, and tourists after flights were suspended on Sept. 25. US Troop Exit and Sovereignty Pressure: With the last US-led coalition troops leaving Erbil on Sept. 30, Baghdad is pushing harder on state control, including a warning from PM Ali al-Zaidi to the Shiite Coordination Framework over missed deadlines to bring weapons under state authority. Arms Control and Diplomacy: Al-Zaidi’s message also ties to talks with the US and the political and economic fallout if weapons issues stay unresolved. Oil Market Watch: OPEC+ kept November output unchanged at 31.01 million bpd, with Iraq’s required level at 4.431 million bpd. Baghdad Local Life: Baghdad’s Sabaa Qusour faces a severe school shortage, with over 10,000 students affected by overcrowding and possible school evacuations. Security and Justice: PMF operations arrested 55 suspects across 12 provinces, while Iraqi courts handed down death and life sentences in separate drug cases.

Flights & Pilgrimage: Iranian airlines resumed flights to Iraq’s Najaf after the U.S. granted Baghdad an exemption, with up to 40 daily flights allowed (except Mahan Air) and Caspian Airlines landing first; Iraqi Airways also received a waiver. Sovereignty Day Fallout: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi ordered an investigation after pro-Iranian PMF vehicles were filmed trampling a U.S. flag during Baghdad’s Sovereignty Day parades; arrests were reported and legal accountability demanded. Oil Under Pressure: Iraq’s state tanker company shipped 2 million barrels of crude beyond the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in decades, seeking better pricing as Hormuz exports remain disrupted by the U.S.-Iran standoff; OPEC+ also agreed to keep output steady for November. Security & Courts: ISIS left an IED that killed two Iraqi soldiers and wounded two near Mosul; in Kirkuk, a senior counterterrorism official was removed after a deadly operation involving Kurdish civilians. Economy & Daily Life: The dollar rose in Baghdad and Erbil; Iraq’s budget deficit hit about $20.16B in the first seven months of 2026 as spending outpaced revenues. Kurdistan Humanitarian: 11 Kurdish asylum seekers missing in Libya were returned to the Kurdistan Region after months of efforts.

US-Iraq Sovereignty: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi says Iraq has restored full sovereignty after the US-led coalition’s Sept. 30 withdrawal, stressing that Iraq controls its decisions, territory and airspace and that all weapons fall under the commander-in-chief. Najaf-Iran Flights: After a short suspension tied to US sanctions, Najaf International Airport will restart Iran routes on Sunday with three evening flights, with a plan to scale up to as many as 40 daily flights for Iranian carriers (excluding Mahan Air) under a limited US waiver. Hormuz Oil Shift: Iraq’s state oil tanker company transported two million barrels of crude beyond the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in decades, as the Iran war disrupts exports and raises transit risks. KRG Budget Talks: Two KRG delegations are in Baghdad to negotiate the 2027 federal budget and September salary lists, with disputes over the Region’s population share still driving tension. Energy Deal with Türkiye: Iraq and Türkiye advanced a draft agreement to expand oil exports via the Turkish port of Ceyhan, including new joint technical committees for oilfields and infrastructure. Cyber Education Push: Iraq’s universities rapidly expanded cybersecurity departments, rising from 5 in 2022 to 123 in 2026-2027 across 90 institutions, with Baghdad leading the growth. Security & Politics: Iraq’s government is moving to disarm armed groups and keep weapons under state control, while pro-Iran factions resist timelines.

US-Iraq Sovereignty & Security: Iraq marked National Day as the US-led coalition’s withdrawal completes, with Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi saying Iraq now “owns its own decision” and that all weapons are subject to the commander-in-chief, while the Coordination Framework urged “complete and comprehensive de-escalation” after the “Sovereignty Days.” Cabinet & Weapons Control: Political blocs have been told to submit nominees for the remaining nine ministries, as parliament prepares to vote on a single package; meanwhile Baghdad is pushing a June 30, 2027 deadline for armed groups to hand over weapons, with pro-Iran factions still refusing. Najaf-Iran Flight Resumption: After a US waiver, Iranian airlines (excluding Mahan Air) can run up to 40 daily flights to and from Najaf; Najaf airport says flights resume Sunday with three evening trips. Interior Crackdown: Iraq’s Rapid Response Division arrested 308 suspects and seized drugs, weapons, and cash in September. Tech & Economy: Iraq signed a data-center MoU with Huawei and showcased AI startups at ITEX 2026; gold prices dipped in Baghdad but rose in Erbil, and the dollar edged up in both cities.

US-Iraq Withdrawal: The US and coalition formally ended Operation Inherent Resolve and completed the withdrawal of all American troops from Iraq, with Iraqi officials framing it as a sovereignty milestone while security fears linger. Arms Under State Control: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi says Iraq will implement a roadmap to bring weapons held outside state authority under government control, with a June 30, 2027 deadline, while the Shiite Coordination Framework backs an arms-control timeline. Iran Flights to Najaf: Iraq secured a US sanctions exemption allowing Iranian airlines (excluding Mahan Air) to run up to 40 flights daily to and from Najaf, after protests and airport disruptions tied to US pressure on Iran’s aviation sector. Baghdad Tech Deal: Iraq’s Ministry of Communications signed a MoU with Huawei to build enterprise data centers nationwide, aiming to expand sovereign cloud hosting and digital services. Baghdad Sovereignty Day Culture & Security: Baghdad hosted a major motorsports festival for Sovereignty Day, while the Iraqi Air Force denied rumors of an F-16 crash during sovereignty-related flyovers. Iraq-Türkiye Energy Talks: Negotiations in Ankara discussed expanding oil and gas cooperation, including extending the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline toward Basra and boosting export capacity. Media & Corruption Focus: Reporting on the “Dawn Crackdown” shows a shift from early mass arrests toward court rulings and asset-tracing as Iraq continues anti-corruption efforts.

Najaf–Iran Air Links: Iraq agreed to let Iranian airlines (excluding Mahan Air) run up to 40 flights daily to and from Najaf International Airport after US sanctions exemptions, aiming to ease travel for pilgrims, patients, students and tourism. US Withdrawal Fallout: The US-led coalition formally ended its anti-ISIS mission as the last forces left Erbil, while Iraq sets a June 30 deadline for armed factions to hand over weapons—amid warnings that Iran-backed groups may expand influence. Security & Justice Watch: Amnesty International urged Iraq to ensure due process for more than 5,700 ISIS detainees transferred from northeast Syria, including urgent child-rights protections. Local Life: A fire trapped several people in an Erbil residential complex; meanwhile, Dhi Qar completed surveys for 42,000 housing plots under the Watan initiative. Economy & Energy: OPEC+ delayed its 2027 oil capacity review after regional disruptions, a move that matters for Iraq’s production baseline talks. Environment in Kurdistan: Duhok villagers report ongoing logging near Turkish military posts, raising fears for forests and wildlife. Culture & Community: Baghdad marked the centenary of three Iraqi poets with readings and music.

US-Iraq Withdrawal & Sovereignty Day: Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi confirmed the complete end of the US-led coalition mission, calling it a new chapter in full sovereignty, while the government sets a roadmap to bring weapons held by non-state groups under state control by June 30, 2027. Armed Factions & Disarmament Talks: Iran-aligned groups gave mixed signals: Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada and Ansar Allah al-Awfiya said they will stick to agreed timelines, while Kataib Hezbollah suspended military activities after the US exit but said actions against “enemy aircraft” would continue. Regional Pressure via Air Travel: Iran urged Baghdad to lift flight restrictions tied to US sanctions, after partial resumptions at Najaf and continued suspensions at Baghdad, Erbil and Sulaymaniyah; protests erupted over disrupted travel for pilgrims, patients and students. Security Incidents: Iraq’s CTS opened probes into a Kirkuk-area operation that killed two civilians and wounded CTS personnel. Local Life & Recovery: UNOPS awarded a contract to rehabilitate 42 housing units in Sinjar, and in Shengal, the remains of 25 people killed by ISIS in 2014 were finally laid to rest. Diplomacy: Qatar attended a Rome meeting on detention and reintegration of ISIS affiliates, alongside representatives from 32 countries and the EU.

US-Iraq Sovereignty: Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi confirmed the complete withdrawal of the US-led coalition, calling Oct. 1 the start of a “new chapter” and launching a roadmap to end weapons outside state control, with disarmament of non-Iraqi armed groups targeted by June 30, 2027. Armed Factions Push Back: Pro-Iran groups, including Kataib Hezbollah, say they are not bound by any timeline or agreement and will not surrender weapons on demand. Regional Reactions: Iran’s IRGC and Hezbollah hailed the pullout as a historic victory, while analysts warn Iraq may face a security vacuum and wider regional rivalry. Currency & Economy: Iraq received a new shipment of US dollars from the New York Fed as Baghdad works to manage cash needs amid US pressure on dollar flows. Infrastructure & Business: ORA Iraq signed with CRC Dorra to build the first phase of Madinat Al Ward in Baghdad, a $10bn, multi-year city project. Security & Justice: In Kirkuk, counterterrorism forces revised claims after backlash over civilian deaths; in Sinjar, remains of 25 Yazidi ISIS victims were returned after DNA identification. Corruption Watch: Iraq’s Federal Board of Financial Control adopted mandatory pre-signing audits for state contracts.