AGP Executive Report

Armed Groups Under State Control: Iraq’s new push to centralize weapons under state authority is gaining momentum, with reports that the government is forming committees and receiving signals from Iran-backed factions about aligning with Baghdad’s disarmament process. Kurdistan-Baghdad Talks: Kurdistan Region PM Masrour Barzani says Baghdad wants to “turn a new page” with Erbil after high-level meetings on oil exports and financial entitlements. Oil & Money Watch: Baghdad’s markets show stabilization in the USD/IQD, while gold prices hold steady in Baghdad and rise in Erbil; separate reports also point to Kurdistan revenue pressure from regional conflict. Regional Security: Iran’s Quds Force chief Qaani is demanding Israel withdraw from Lebanon amid a US-brokered ceasefire, while analysts warn a US-Iran deal may not end wider instability. World Cup Build-Up (Iraq): Spain hosts Iraq in a friendly ahead of the 2026 tournament, with Iraq preparing for its return to the World Cup after 1986.

Iraq Arms Integration: U.S. envoy Tom Barrack welcomed Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi’s push to integrate armed groups into state institutions and move weapons under government control, calling it a step toward restored sovereignty and stability. Security & Military Losses: The U.S. Department of Defense said Sgt. Devin A. Seibel, 26, died in a training-related incident at Erbil Airbase while supporting Operation Inherent Resolve; the incident is under investigation. A British soldier, L/Cpl James Freeman, also died in a routine training activity in northern Iraq. Regional Tensions: Iran-linked attacks continued to ripple across the Gulf, with Kuwait condemning a strike on Kuwait International Airport that killed one and injured others, the ninth such attack since flights resumed. World Cup Build-Up (Iraq in focus): Spain and Iraq meet in a World Cup warm-up in La Coruña on June 4, while Spain coach Luis de la Fuente said Lamine Yamal is progressing and could be ready for Spain’s June 15 opener, though he won’t play against Iraq. Culture & Education: Iraq’s Kurdistan hosted the Chinese Bridge final in Erbil, with Bahroz Kanabi Ismael winning and earning a spot in the global finals in China.

Oil & Kurdistan: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi ordered oil companies in the Kurdistan Region to resume operations from Thursday, after drone attacks disrupted energy infrastructure and exports. Armed groups & state control: Iran-backed militias in Iraq signaled steps to disengage from the PMF and move weapons under state authority, with Zaidi saying a committee will be formed within two days. Alternative export routes: Baghdad approved plans to more than triple crude exports via the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline to Ceyhan, as Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep squeezing southern shipments. Security & militancy: PMF said three IS militants were killed in Nineveh during an operation targeting al-Baaj desert areas. Kurdistan politics: KDP officials renewed calls to resolve deadlock with Baghdad through dialogue and stressed the need to activate the Kurdistan Parliament. Health in Kurdistan: Duhok confirmed a Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever case after a Sinjar resident was hospitalized. Regional spillover: Reports say IRGC missile strikes hit Iranian Kurdish party bases in Erbil’s Alana Valley. World Cup tie-in: Spain coach Luis de la Fuente said Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams should be fit for Spain’s opener, with Iraq set as a warmup opponent.

Gulf Security Shock: Iran-linked missile and drone attacks hit the region after a US strike on Qeshm Island, with Kuwait and Bahrain reporting interceptions and airspace disruptions; the US says none of its personnel were harmed and that it carried out retaliatory strikes. Iraq Arms Under State Control: Two major Iran-backed Iraqi factions announced they are starting to disengage from PMF structures and move weapons under Iraqi state authority, citing demands tied to Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani and Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi. Anti-Corruption Crackdown: Iraq’s judiciary confirmed the detention of Deputy Oil Minister Adnan Al Jumaili over corruption charges, including confiscations of properties, cash, gold, and weapons tied to refinery contracts. Regional Nuclear Concern: The UN nuclear chief warned that an attack on the UAE’s Barakah plant—blamed on drones launched from Iraq—was “unacceptable,” after a reactor shut down temporarily due to power loss. Baghdad Watch: With the Strait of Hormuz under strain and Gulf tensions rising, Iraq’s security and oil-linked economy remain tightly linked to events beyond its borders.

Militias to State Control: Iran-backed Asaib Ahl al-Haq says it has started placing its weapons under Iraqi state authority, forming a committee to inventory fighters and arms and coordinate with Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi—part of a wider push to bring militia firepower under government command. Maritime Security: Two explosions hit a cargo vessel near Umm Qasr; Iraqi officials and UKMTO link the blasts to a drone attack and a projectile strike, with the crew reported safe and no claim of responsibility. Iraq Corruption Watch: Iraq’s Federal Integrity Commission says it uncovered an embezzlement scheme in Diyala’s electricity directorate worth nearly 2 billion dinars, dismissing four senior officials. Regional Ceasefire Reality: Analysts warn that “ceasefire” language across the Middle East is increasingly being treated as low-intensity war—meaning violence can continue without escalation. World Cup Focus (Iraq-linked): France’s William Saliba faces growing injury concern ahead of the tournament, with Iraq listed among France’s group-stage opponents. Euphrates & Flood Risk: Iraq is preparing emergency measures as Euphrates water levels rise, raising concerns for flooding.

Iraq Security: A U.S. soldier and a British soldier died during a training exercise at an air base in Irbil, with identities withheld until families are notified, as Washington keeps a presence in Iraqi Kurdistan. Regional Shipping & Iran Tensions: UKMTO reported a cargo ship explosion off Iraq near Umm Qasr after an unknown projectile; Iran’s IRGC later claimed it struck the Panama-flagged MSC Sariska with a cruise missile, framing it as retaliation. Diplomacy Under Strain: Iran says it suspended indirect talks with the U.S. over Israel’s Lebanon campaign, while Trump insists Iran talks are still moving “at a rapid pace,” keeping ceasefire hopes fragile. World Cup Focus: Iraq unveiled its final 26-man squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, set for Group I against France, Senegal, and Norway. Sports Injury Watch: France’s William Saliba is reported doubtful for the tournament after a back injury, raising questions for Les Bleus’ defense. Local Economy/Infrastructure: Iraq’s Basra remains a key flashpoint as militias compete for influence near the Kuwait border amid the wider Iran conflict.

Militias to state forces: Muqtada al-Sadr announced the integration of Saraya al-Salam into Iraq’s state authority, with a handover process aimed to finish by Eid al-Ghadir (June 4), as Iraq weighs how far armed groups will go under government control. Iraq security & arrests: Kirkuk counter-terrorism forces arrested a suspect wanted internationally for murder and kidnapping in Sweden, handing him over for legal procedures. Maritime tensions near Umm Qasr: A Panama-flagged MSC container ship (MSC Sariska V) was hit by an unidentified projectile about 40 nautical miles southeast of Umm Qasr; accounts differ between attack claims and mechanical failure, and Iraqi authorities are investigating. Regional war pressure: Iran says it has halted US talks via mediators and threatens wider pressure, including blocking Hormuz and activating other fronts, as Israel’s Lebanon campaign continues. Foreign military incident: The UK confirmed a British Army service member died in a training accident in northern Iraq; details remain under investigation. World Cup spotlight: Iraq is listed in World Cup Group I with France, Senegal, and Norway, as final squad lists are due to be submitted today.

ISIS Case in Australia: An Australian woman accused of joining Islamic State in Syria told a court she has renounced jihad, as prosecutors allege she supported attacks, tried to indoctrinate her children, and recruited others during her time in Raqqa. US-Iran Tensions Spill to Kuwait: The US said it targeted Iranian radar and drone control sites after an MQ-1 Predator was shot down; Kuwait reported intercepts against incoming missile and drone attacks. Bahrain Targets IRGC-Linked Network: Bahrain’s prosecution says it launched investigations into a group tied to the IRGC and Wilayat al-Faqih ideology, alleging mosque and funeral influence, intimidation of clerics, and funding links reaching Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon. US Expands Envoy Role to Iraq: President Trump appointed Tom Barrack as special envoy for Syria and Iraq, keeping him as US ambassador to Türkiye, with Rubio calling him a key figure for Iraq policy. Iraq Security/Politics: Iraq’s PM urged armed factions to join state institutions as integration steps continue, while reports also highlight ongoing armed group pressure and disarmament debate. Baghdad/Economy Signals: Oil and shipping updates point to Hormuz-related strain easing at times, with Iraqi crude movements and regional energy risk still in focus.

US-Iraq Diplomacy: President Trump named Ambassador Tom Barrack as special presidential envoy for both Syria and Iraq, keeping him as Turkey ambassador and signaling a renewed push to manage Washington’s ties with Baghdad amid militia influence and stalled disarmament efforts. Anti-Corruption Drive in Baghdad: Iraqi PM Ali Al Zaidi ordered creation of the Supreme Sovereign Council for Integrity, Oversight, and Recovery of Public Funds to monitor ministries and governorates, cut waste, and refer findings to the judiciary. Baghdad Protest: Thousands rallied in Radwaniyah rejecting a decree tied to land around Baghdad International Airport, alleging a corruption scheme involving foreign developers and bribes. Power Supply Update: Baghdad restarted electricity interconnection lines with Iraqi Kurdistan, adding about 120 MW to support summer demand. Oil Export Friction: With Hormuz disruption, Iraq is relying more on overland tanker routes, but bureaucratic red tape is reportedly delaying shipments and dragging down export volumes. Health Watch in Kurdistan: Kurdistan health officials say no Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever cases have been recorded yet, while central and southern Iraq remain at risk after Eid slaughter season.

Iraq’s Arms Debate: Kataib Hezbollah says it will keep up “militant action” and rejects US pressure to disarm, while offering to help other armed groups hand over and store weapons under state supervision—an open challenge to Baghdad’s push to restrict arms to the state. US-Iran Tensions Spill Into Kuwait: An Iranian Fateh-110 missile hit Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, injuring about five Americans and damaging two MQ-9 Reaper drones, as Washington weighs a potential 60-day ceasefire and “final determination” on Iran talks. Baghdad-Eid Connectivity: Iraq’s Communications Ministry plans free internet at major holy shrines in Najaf, Karbala, Kadhimiya and Samarra starting next week for Eid al-Ghadir, with service also planned for Ashura and Arbaeen routes. World Cup Build-Up: Iraq beat Andorra 1-0 in a friendly ahead of the 2026 World Cup, with Ali Yusuf scoring, and the team set to face Spain in the final warm-up. Regional Politics and Sovereignty: Kataib Hezbollah also urged Iraqi lawmakers to limit US and British ambassadors’ interference in Iraq’s domestic affairs. Sports Admin Shock: UAE Football Association terminated coach Cosmin Olaroiu and staff after the UAE’s World Cup qualification failure, including elimination by Iraq in the playoff.

Iraq Budget Pressure: Iraq is struggling to balance its 2026 budget as oil exports fall sharply after Strait of Hormuz restrictions, with officials warning the budget has become a “political and economic equation” tied to volatile regional conditions. Oil Routes & Prices: Baghdad is pushed toward northern export routes via Turkey’s Ceyhan port, while dollar rates and gold prices show mixed movement across Baghdad and Erbil amid the wider Gulf disruption. Security & Factions: Iraq’s Prime Minister urged armed factions to disarm and join state institutions after Al-Sadr’s Saraya al-Salam move under government authority, as Baghdad also faces ongoing bomb and counter-terror incidents. Regional Diplomacy: Iraq and Iran continue talks on de-escalation and US-linked nuclear discussions, while Tehran warns Baghdad not to use its airspace for threats. Baghdad Church Leadership: A new head of the Chaldean Catholic Church assumed office in Baghdad, marking a fresh chapter for one of Iraq’s key Christian communities. World Cup Spotlight (Iraq): Iraq’s World Cup match schedule includes a June 16 clash vs Norway in Boston, keeping Iraqi fans tied to the tournament as preparations ramp up.

Oil & Appointments: Iraq’s parliament has approved Bassim Mohammed Khudair, an oil-industry veteran and former deputy oil minister, as the new Minister of Oil, as Baghdad navigates regional turmoil and major export disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf Tensions: Iraq condemned missile and drone attacks on Kuwait, urging restraint and diplomacy as the US and Iran negotiate a possible 60-day ceasefire extension and talks on nuclear issues. Militias & State Control: Muqtada al-Sadr’s decision to separate Saraya al-Salam from his movement and integrate it into state structures is reigniting debate over armed factions, weapons, and how far the government can rein in non-state forces. Kurdish Coordination: A US Kurdish advocacy group is calling for a special US envoy for Kurdish affairs to better coordinate policy across Iraq, Syria, Türkiye and Iran. Baghdad Focus: Iraq also faces ongoing security and governance pressure as international support is increasingly tied to disarmament and state control of weapons.

Militias Under Pressure: Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi urged all armed factions to operate under state authority and official institutions, following Muqtada al-Sadr’s move to integrate Saraya al-Salam into government structures—an effort that also mirrors continued US pressure to curb Iran-aligned militia influence. Terror Case in US Courts: US DOJ indicted Iraqi-Iranian national Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi on eight counts tied to attempted transnational attacks, including alleged plans targeting Jewish sites in Europe and a New York City synagogue plot. Sanctions Update: US Treasury removed 76 names and entities from an older sanctions blacklist, including an Iraqi national, saying the cleanup targets low-risk entries and reduces unnecessary screening burdens. Gulf Tensions, Iraq in the Middle: US and Iran negotiators reached a tentative 60-day ceasefire extension and nuclear talks framework, as Kuwait reported missile/drone attacks amid a fragile standoff that keeps Strait of Hormuz disruption in focus for Iraq’s trade. Health Watch in Kurdistan: Kurdistan’s health minister said no hemorrhagic fever cases were recorded so far, while warning of seasonal spread and urging Eid al-Adha slaughter precautions.

Eid Al-Adha Economy: In Iraqi Kurdistan, Al-Sulaymaniyah’s livestock markets bounced back after salary payments resumed, with traders saying demand picked up as families regained purchasing power, though prices remain high and buying power still feels tight. Holiday Tourism: Kurdistan Region tourism officials in Duhok and Zakho say Eid crowds are expected to surge, with hotels nearing full occupancy and thousands of visitors arriving daily; teams are checking resorts, restaurants, and cafés to keep services running smoothly. Regional Security & Ceasefire Tensions: The U.S. military accused Iran of an “egregious ceasefire violation” after Kuwait reported missile attacks following U.S. strikes, as Washington and Tehran trade blame while negotiations to calm the war continue. Iraq’s Air Defense Upgrade: A new report says Iraq is moving to strengthen air defenses with missile and gun systems from South Korea and Turkey, while also negotiating advanced fighter acquisitions—though it warns readiness may still depend on sustained foreign support.

Armed Factions vs. Disarmament: Iraq’s Iran-aligned Kataib Sayyid Al-Shuhada rejected handing over weapons, saying “resistance’s weapons” will stay as long as threats to sovereignty continue, while Asaib Ahl al-Haq backed limiting weapons to state control—both positions follow Muqtada al-Sadr’s move to place Saraya Al-Salam under state authority. Counter-Terror Ops: Iraqi forces carried out Kirkuk operations targeting ISIS hideouts and logistics sites, with the Defense Ministry saying several “terrorists” were killed and shelters destroyed. Eid al-Adha in Kurdistan: Thousands of visitors poured into Erbil and Sulaymaniyah for Eid, filling parks and resorts as authorities deployed security and medical teams and reported tens of thousands entering the region. Baghdad’s Eid Mood: In Najaf, Wadi al-Salam cemetery drew mourners at dawn for Eid prayers and rituals tied to the dead, underscoring how the holiday blends celebration with grief. Regional Pressure from the Iran War: Kuwait reported missile and drone threats amid a shaky ceasefire, as the wider US-Iran confrontation continues to ripple through the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

Eid al-Adha in Iraq: Shia pilgrims marked Eid al-Adha with large crowds and heavy security at the holy shrines in Karbala, Kadhimiya, and Najaf, following Arafah prayers, with shrine administrations running major service plans for visitors. Kurdistan politics after Eid: Kurdistan Region President Masoud Barzani and PM Masrour Barzani sent Eid messages calling for tolerance, peace, and an end to political deadlock, while KDP leaders urged renewed efforts to break the Kurdistan deadlock after the holiday. Sadr’s state integration move: Muqtada al-Sadr announced the “complete separation” of Saraya al-Salam from his movement and its “complete integration” into Iraqi state forces, prompting Iraqi leaders to welcome the step toward restricting weapons to official institutions. Baghdad security and governance: Reports also highlight ongoing political and security pressure around state control, including backlash over Rafidain Bank reassignments and calls for tighter enforcement of law and institutions. Regional tensions: Iran-US talks and renewed strikes remain in focus, with the White House denying a reported draft MoU and regional shipping fears tied to Hormuz.