AGP Executive Report

Iraq–Syria Ties: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s landmark Damascus visit focused on trade, security and reviving Iraqi oil exports through Syria’s Baniyas pipeline, with a proposed capacity of up to 2 million barrels a day but no timeline yet. Anti-Corruption: Sunni politician Muthanna al-Samarrai was sentenced to six years in prison and ordered to return 30 billion dinars over contracts and public works. Sinjar Dispute: The Kurdistan Region’s Interior Ministry urged Baghdad to implement the 2020 Sinjar Agreement, warning that federal arrangements made without KRG consultation could deepen security and administrative tensions. Regional Security: Drones were downed near Baghdad, while Iran’s strikes on Kurdish opposition sites add to concerns that Iraq could be drawn into renewed conflict. Kurdistan: Six Kurdish migrants stranded in Libya have returned home, and authorities are working to bring back 14 others held in prisons.

Syria Ties: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s landmark Damascus visit advanced talks on border security, trade and exporting Iraqi oil through Syria’s Baniyas pipeline, which could carry up to 2 million barrels a day. Baghdad Security: Iraqi forces intercepted drones near the Green Zone, while the government faces pressure to keep Iraq out of a renewed Iran conflict as Iran-backed groups signal support for Tehran. Parliament: Lawmakers are due to vote Thursday on standing committee members and some chairs, after lengthy negotiations among political blocs. Kirkuk Investment: A Turkish business delegation is exploring projects in Kirkuk, including oil and gas, as Ankara and Baghdad seek closer economic ties. Household Finance: Rafidain Bank has opened a second round of salary advances and loans for eligible employees and retirees through the SuperQi app.

Baghdad Security: Iraqi air defenses intercepted drones near the Green Zone, triggering a security alert; no injuries were reported as authorities investigated their origin. Sinjar Dispute: The Kurdistan Regional Government objected to Baghdad’s unilateral plan to integrate 4,165 YBS fighters into state security forces, saying it bypasses the 2020 Sinjar Agreement. Economic Ties: Iraq and Jordan have signed nine cooperation agreements, while Iraq’s trade minister met Qatari investors to discuss expanding trade and investment. Baghdad also plans to start expanding the Development Road project in 2027. Oil and Regional Tensions: Brent crude climbed above $115 a barrel after Yemen’s Houthis claimed an attack on a major Saudi refinery, reviving fears of supply disruption across a region central to Iraq’s oil exports.

Baghdad Security: Iraqi air defenses intercepted two drones near the Green Zone, where officials said they were preparing for an attack; no casualties or damage were reported. Government Shake-up: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi dismissed intelligence chief Hamid al-Shatri as part of a wider reshuffle, with no reason announced. Sinjar: More than 4,000 members of the PKK-linked YBŞ are being integrated into federal security forces, but Sinjar’s administrative future remains unresolved and Peshmerga commanders say they were not part of the deal. Regional Ties: Iraq and Jordan signed nine cooperation agreements covering areas including trade, education and security, as Baghdad seeks closer regional partnerships. Infrastructure: Al-Zaidi says work on the Development Road expansion is expected to start in 2027. IS Cases: Iraqi courts sentenced French nationals over Islamic State membership, with reports saying several received life terms.

Counterterrorism: An Iraqi court sentenced six French nationals to life in prison and a seventh to 15 years for joining ISIS; the defendants plan to appeal. Sinjar Security: Iraq has begun integrating 4,165 members of the PKK-linked YBS and women’s units into state security forces, with federal forces taking over positions on Mount Sinjar. Iran Border Dispute: A court issued an arrest warrant for Maysan council chief Mustafa al-Muhammadawi after he threatened civil disobedience over the closure of the al-Sheeb crossing. Iraq-Jordan Ties: Baghdad and Amman signed nine cooperation agreements as Iraq pushes a free-trade zone and plans to begin a 1,200-kilometre Development Road extension in 2027. Security and Economy: A vessel was reported on fire off Iraq’s coast, while OPEC+ producers are expected to keep output targets steady at Sunday’s meeting. Government Changes: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi dismissed intelligence chief Hamid al-Shatri.

Iraq–Jordan Ties: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi met King Abdullah II in Amman, where the two countries signed nine cooperation agreements and discussed a free-trade zone. Al-Zaidi said work to extend the Development Road project is expected to begin in early 2027. Sinjar Security: Baghdad began integrating the Yazidi YBŞ force into state security institutions, with federal forces taking over strategic positions on Mount Sinjar. Maysan Border Dispute: The closure of the Al-Sheeb crossing with Iran has fueled protests and tensions with Tehran. Security forces raided the home of the provincial council chief to execute an arrest warrant linked to his threats of civil disobedience; he was not found. Financial Crime: Authorities arrested six people, including a bank branch manager and customs official, accused of using forged documents to transfer about $99 million abroad. Maritime Alert: A vessel was reported on fire southeast of Al-Faw; the crew’s status and cause were unknown.

Security: Iraq began integrating the all-Yazidi Sinjar Resistance Units into state institutions, with federal forces taking responsibility for security around Mount Sinjar. The move is part of Baghdad’s effort to bring armed groups under state control. Iran tensions: Iranian drone strikes targeted Kurdish opposition bases in Iraqi Kurdistan, heightening concerns about Iraq being drawn into a wider conflict. Budget: The 2027 budget is due in parliament by November 15, but disputes over Kurdistan’s share remain unresolved; the draft also faces scrutiny over a large projected deficit. Border Dispute: The closure of Maysan’s Al-Sheeb crossing with Iran has disrupted trade and residents’ access to medical care. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi ordered an investigation into the provincial council chief after he threatened civil disobedience. Heritage: Baghdad’s Shamash Museum has opened in a former Jewish school, while three Iraqi sites were added to ALECSO’s heritage list.

Tishreen Anniversary: Thousands gathered in Baghdad and other cities to demand reform, an end to corruption and justice for protesters killed in the 2019 uprising. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi pledged dialogue and said he would address protesters’ demands. Security: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard targeted the Komala Kurdish opposition group in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region with drones, in another cross-border strike amid rising regional tensions. Oil and Economy: An Iraqi adviser warned a prolonged Hormuz shutdown could cut oil revenues by as much as 80%, putting salaries and public services at risk. Iraq needs oil at about $86 a barrel to balance its budget, while its deficit reached roughly $20 billion in the first eight months of 2026. Erbil-Baghdad Disputes: Talks between Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and an Iraqi delegation ended without agreement on budget allocations and energy entitlements, though both sides said negotiations would continue. Border Closure: Maysan’s provincial council threatened civil disobedience if Baghdad does not reopen the Al-Shaib crossing with Iran. The closure has also diverted Iraq-bound trucks to Iran’s Mehran crossing.

Kurdistan Security: A drone struck a Komala base in Erbil province, damaging buildings but causing no reported casualties. The group blamed Iran’s Revolutionary Guards; Iranian media also reported the attack. Baghdad–Erbil Talks: A senior Iraqi delegation arrived in Zakho to discuss oil disputes, the Kurdistan Region’s financial entitlements and the delayed 2027 federal budget with Prime Minister Masrour Barzani. Iraq’s ruling coalition has urged parliament to pass the budget swiftly. Kurdistan Economy: Barzani launched industrial and tourism projects in Zakho, including a $15 million sports complex and a Nissan branch expected to create about 400 jobs, as he called for the region to become an industrial hub. Development: The UN says it will continue supporting Iraq’s public services, jobs, climate resilience and other priorities following UNAMI’s closure.

Militia Tensions: Iraqi sources suspect Israel struck two sites holding Iranian-supplied militia air-defence systems last week, though the report’s claims remain unconfirmed. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq says it recorded 171 US airspace violations since Sept. 30 and criticized Baghdad’s closure of the al-Sheeb crossing with Iran; the allegations have not been independently verified. Erbil Security: A drone hit an Iranian Kurdish opposition camp in Erbil province, causing material damage but no reported casualties. US Warning: Washington urged its citizens not to travel to Iraq, citing risks of armed conflict, terrorism and kidnapping, as US intelligence warns of advanced Iranian plots against Americans. Weapons and Oil: Baghdad says no US troops remain in Iraq and has set June 2027 as the deadline for armed factions to bring weapons under state control. Iraq’s oil minister also urged faster purchases of tankers to protect exports and revenue amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

State Authority: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi says no US troops, including advisers, remain in Iraq. He pledged to bring all weapons under state control by June 30, 2027, saying agreements are in place with three armed factions and talks continue with four others. Dollar Supply: Baghdad is seeking larger US cash shipments to ease the exchange-rate gap, with monthly supplies raised to $500 million and plans to exceed $1 billion. Al-Zaidi said the government is seeking shipments of up to $2.5 billion. Iran Border: Iraq’s closure of the Al-Sheeb crossing is adding pressure to Iran’s overland trade routes, alongside restrictions at crossings in Pakistan. Baghdad cited security checks and anti-smuggling efforts. Regional Tensions: Trump has raised the prospect of fresh strikes on Iran, while regional and European officials warned another attack could widen the war. Jordan Attack: Kurdistan Region Prime Minister Masrour Barzani condemned the church shooting in Karak, which killed seven people and wounded dozens, and voiced solidarity with Jordan.

Currency Pressure: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi says Iraq is seeking to increase cash-dollar shipments to narrow the gap between the official exchange rate and the parallel market, where the dollar has climbed above 170,000 dinars per $100. The government hopes the rate could fall to 155,000 or less. Kirkuk Displacement: More than 70 Kurdish families in Aliawa face possible eviction as demolition work begins on a housing development. Residents say the land was officially allocated to them after they were resettled under Article 140 and reject the compensation offered. Regional Tensions: A US envoy said a strike on Iran could come as soon as this weekend, though President Donald Trump said he knew nothing of the possibility. Any renewed fighting could intensify pressure on Baghdad to keep Iraq and armed factions out of the conflict. Oil and Exports: Iraq’s crude exports were 13% below pre-war levels in the first 22 days of October, as disruptions to regional shipping and oil flows continue to weigh on the economy.

Sinjar Dispute: Parliament ordered Nineveh’s council to halt nominations for two Sinjar posts, saying the positions are not vacant and the process violates the law. Regional Security: Iraqi intelligence helped the UAE seize 200,000 captagon pills and arrest suspects. Baghdad also says it will not ban Waze, despite a minister’s earlier proposal to block the app. Economy and Technology: Iraq expects mobile and tech sectors to generate more than $2.5 billion in annual state revenue from 2027; Chinese exports to Iraq, meanwhile, fell nearly 32% in the first nine months of this year. Public Safety and Agriculture: Civil Defense announced a school-safety plan targeting fire and collapse risks, while Diyala officials warn red palm weevil is spreading amid shortages of control supplies. Education and Sport: Kurdistan Region universities admitted 878 students from Kirkuk and other disputed areas. Iraqi athletes added medals at the Asian Para Games, including gold in discus and bronze in sitting volleyball.

Banking: Iraq’s central bank barred the International Development Bank from all US-dollar transactions after Washington sanctioned it over alleged links to Iran-related financial networks. The bank has rejected the accusations. Regional Security: Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein told his Saudi counterpart that Iraq will not allow its territory to be used for attacks on Saudi Arabia or other neighbors. Baghdad has also closed the Sheeb crossing with Iran for security checks, drawing a protest from Tehran. Counterterrorism: Iraqi intelligence arrested a suspected aide to ISIS’s self-proclaimed “governor of southern Iraq” in Nasiriyah, as militants targeted a surveillance camera in Kirkuk. Energy and Shipping: ExxonMobil and Basra Oil Company signed a seawater-supply agreement for a major oilfield. Separately, a reported projectile strike near Al-Faw has not been confirmed by Iraqi authorities.

Border Security: Baghdad has closed the Sheeb crossing with Iran and says it will gradually shut all crossings, citing security arrangements. Iraq also denies hosting Houthi bases and says its territory will not be used to threaten neighboring countries. Maritime Risks: A tanker was reportedly hit by a projectile southeast of Al Faw, though Iraq has yet to confirm the attack. The country has launched a vessel-monitoring system as threats to Gulf shipping persist. Economic Pressure: Iraq’s domestic debt has topped $75 billion, while dinar depreciation is driving up food prices. The government has scrapped tariffs on imported solar systems and approved corn silage exports to support energy and non-oil trade. Investment and Connectivity: A 1,620-home residential project has been approved in Baghdad, while Oman’s SalamAir will begin twice-weekly flights to Erbil on October 25, adding a second Iraqi destination to its network.

Iran Border: Iraq closed the Sheeb crossing to passengers and goods for a security review, with officials warning other crossings could follow. The closures could disrupt trade worth more than $10 billion a year; Tehran says it received no advance notice. Shipping Risks: A tanker reported a projectile strike southeast of Al-Faw. Its crew were safe, with no damage or environmental impact reported. Regional Tensions: Baghdad denied claims that Yemen’s Houthis have bases in Iraq, saying Iraqi territory will not be used to threaten neighboring countries. Security: Iraqi forces seized 600,000 Captagon pills and arrested two suspects in Diyala. Meanwhile, reports of renewed ISIS activity in Kirkuk and the recent burial of dozens of security personnel killed by the group highlight persistent threats.